N2A

版权声明：转载时请以超链接形式标明文章原始出处和作者信息及本声明
http://pemiamos.blogbus.com/logs/49215536.html

自Google成立十年来，互联网极大地冲击了世界各地人们的生活。它改变了政治、娱乐、文化、商业、健康、环境以及你能想到的任何话题。我们现在思索的是，下一个十年还将发生什么？这项非凡的技术将怎样演变，我们将怎样去适应这种变化，而更重要的是它将怎样来适应我们？我们向十位顶级专家询问了这一非常问题，并且在九月（我们十周年之际）向世人发表他们的答复。正如计算机科学家艾伦凯著名地观察到的一样，预测未来的最佳方式是去创造未来，因此我们每天都将尽全力来实现我们专家的预言。

——丛书编辑凯伦和艾伦

目前世界上大约存在32亿移动用户，并且据预测该数字在未来几年内将至少再增加十亿。今时今日，移动电话比轿车（世界上约有8亿登记在册的车辆）和信用卡（仅有14亿张）更为流行。当固定电话花费了100年时间来散播到全世界80%的国家时，它的下一代无线产品仅用了16年就达成了这一目标。而现在只有很少的年轻人还在佩戴手表，因为他们都是用手机来看时间的。因此可以安心地说移动电话是所发明过的最多产的消费性产品。

然而，你曾经有没有确切考虑过这些无所不在的设备到底有多强大？那部置放于你的口袋、背包、手袋中的手机可能十倍强大于你在8、9年前桌面上的那台个人电脑（假定你甚至有一台桌面电脑；大多数移动用户都没有这种电脑）。它有一系列能够使火星登陆者都颇感自豪的传感器：这是普通手机拥有的基本配置如时钟、能量传感（电池电量到底有多低？）、温度计（因为电池在低温条件下充电状况极差）以及光度计（借此来决定屏幕背景光的亮度）；此外还有更高级的配置如定位传感、加速计（探测运动中的向量和速率）也许甚至配有指南针。而最重要的是，这些传感器都很自然地配合连接到了一起。

在未来十年里，基于这些流行趋势的方案会一一落实。你将会携带一款大小24x7（最近一项针对中国移动用户的调查显示他们中的大部分人睡觉时会把手机放置于身旁一米的地方）、电力强劲、长时间待机、拥有丰富传感器的设备。而最酷的是，每一个人都是这样。那么在你没有这样做的现在你会在将来用它做什么呢？下面列出了一些可能性：

智能提醒：你的手机对于你所处的状态将是智能化的，在需要你注意时对你进行提醒。这样的功能目前就已经存在了——易趣会在你落标的状态下对你进行书面通知，并且提醒服务（诸如Google新闻）能够为你传送新闻、体育信息或者最新股票行情。将来这些程序会变得更加智能化，它们会耐心地监查你的个性化喜好（这些将存储于网云中）并仅向你发送你需要的信息。让我们来模拟一个非常有用的场景：你的手机知道你正在前往市中心吃饭的途中，它会提醒你目前的交通状况或者向你提供最佳的停车位信息。

扩增实境：你的手机开动了它整个感应器库来理解你的处境并且给你提供可能会有用的信息。例如你真的想知道橱窗里那只小狗多少钱吗？通过GPS和指南针，你的手机知道你正在注视着它，因此它能在你开口提问之前就告诉你答案。另外，还会告诉你它是什么品种以及最佳训练方法。

众包成为主流：你的手机就是你连接世界的无处不在的话筒，是你发表图片、邮件、文字、论坛和登陆博客的一种方式。当其他每一个人都这样做时，你就有了一个来自星球每个角落的人都在实时更新信息经验的世界。这些庞大的内容都通过一个全新有趣的方式进行编档、分类以及为其他人重新调配。当你在网页上询问附近最有趣的场所时，你的手机会向你显示人们上传的附近旅游景点的游记和图片。喜欢你所看到的景点吗？你的手机将向你发送如何到达目的地的旅游指南。

无处不在的传感器：你的手机对你周遭的世界了解颇多。如果你接受这些情报并且把它和其他手机“在云中”连接起来，我们就能得到时下世界上正在发生的事情的神奇快照。最新天气情况的掌握并不是基于成百上千的传感器，而是上亿的传感器信息。交通报告不仅基于来自直升机和公路传感器的信息，而是基于困于交通堵塞中的手机（拿手机的人）的密度、速度和行进方向。

生计发展工具：你的手机也许不仅仅会给予你方便，它也许会成为你的生计所在。这在世界上的很多地方都已经成为事实：在印度南部，渔民们通过手机短信为他们的每日捕捉量寻找最佳市场进行销售，在南非，糖农们能接收到指导他们掌握作物灌溉量的短信，以及在整个撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲地区的移动电话企业家们都成为了电话运营商，把通讯业带给他们的乡村。随着移动电话成为更强大的经济发展枢纽，这些创新将在未来得到增进。

有未来保证的设备：就像因特网已经做到的一样，你的手机将会全面开放，因此此后设计者创建或者改进程序和内容将会更加容易。你所关注的会自动安装在你的手机上。比如说你的手机上拥有一款改进电源管理（电池寿命）的软件。比如说一个设计者对此软件进行了改进。无需你抬起一根手指，更新程序会自动安装在你的手机上。你的手机确确实实地会一天天变得更好。

通过信任和认证的更安全的软件：你的手机将提供工具和信息来授权给你，让你决定下载什么，浏览什么以及分享什么。信任是始终连接在线的世界中最重要的现状，而你的手机将帮你掌控你的信息。你也许选择不与任何人分享任何东西（默认模式），或者仅仅与特定人群分享特定东西——如你所信任的家人朋友圈子。你将根据从服务软件供应商那里得来的信息和社区共享等级来做出决定。你的手机就像你所信任的仆人：它对你了解颇多，并且没有你的同意它将不会泄露一丁点儿秘密。

现在，就看看我们是否能训练它为你洗衣服了…… 

转自：ài设计

原文：

The Internet has had an enormous impact on people's lives around the world in the ten years since Google's founding. It has changed politics, entertainment, culture, business, health care, the environment and just about every other topic you can think of. Which got us to thinking, what's going to happen in the next ten years? How will this phenomenal technology evolve, how will we adapt, and (more importantly) how will it adapt to us? We asked ten of our top experts this very question, and during September (our 10th anniversary month) we are presenting their responses. As computer scientist Alan Kay has famously observed, the best way to predict the future is to invent it, so we will be doing our best to make good on our experts' words every day. - Karen Wickre and Alan Eagle, series editors

There are currently about 3.2 billion mobile subscribers in the world, and that number is expected to grow by at least a billion in the next few years. Today, mobile phones are more prevalent than cars (about 800 million registered vehicles in the world) and credit cards (only 1.4 billion of those). While it took 100 years for landline phones to spread to more than 80% of the countries in the world, their wireless descendants did it in 16. And fewer teens are wearing watches now because they use their phones to tell time instead (somewhere Chester Gould is wondering how he got it backwards). So it's safe to say that the mobile phone may be the most prolific consumer product ever invented.

However, have you ever considered just exactly how powerful these ubiquitous devices are? The phone that you have in your pocket, pack, or handbag is probably ten times more powerful than the PC you had on your desk only 8 or 9 years ago (assuming you even had a PC; most mobile users never have). It has a range of sensors that would do a martian lander proud: a clock, power sensor (how low is that battery?), thermometer (because batteries charge poorly at low temperatures), and light meter (to determine screen backlighting) on the more basic phones; a location sensor, accelerometer (detects vector and velocity of motion), and maybe even a compass on more advanced ones. And most importantly, it is by its very nature always connected.

Project out these trends another ten years. You will be carrying with you, 24x7 (a recent study of Chinese mobile customers showed that the majority of them sleep within a meter of their phones), a very powerful, always connected, sensor-rich device. And the cool thing is, so will everyone else. So what are you going to do with it that you aren't doing now? Here are some possibilities:

Smart alerts: Your phone will be smart about your situation and alert you when something needs your attention. This is already happening today -- eBay can text you when you've been outbid, and alert services (such as Google News) can deliver news, sports, or stock updates to you. In the future these applications will get smarter, patiently monitoring your personalized preferences (which will be stored in the network cloud) and delivering only the information you desire. One very useful scenario: your phone knows that you are heading downtown for dinner, and alerts you of transit conditions or the best places to park.

Augmented reality: Your phone uses its arsenal of sensors to understand your situation and provide you information that might be useful. For example, do you really want to know how much is that doggy in the window? Your phone, with its GPS and compass, knows what you are looking at, so it can tell you before you even ask. Plus, what breed it is and the best way to train him.

Crowd sourcing goes mainstream: Your phone is your omnipresent microphone to the world, a way to publish pictures, emails, texts, Twitters, and blog entries. When everyone else is doing the same, you have a world where people from every corner of the planet are covering their experiences in real-time. That massive amount of content gets archived, sorted, and re-deployed to other people in new and interesting ways. Ask the web for the most interesting sites in your vicinity, and your phone shows you reviews and pictures that people have uploaded of nearby attractions. Like what you see? It will send you directions on how to get there.

Sensors everywhere: Your phone knows a lot about the world around you. If you take that intelligence and combine it in the cloud with that of every other phone, we have an incredible snapshot of what is going on in the world right now. Weather updates can be based on not hundreds of sensors, but hundreds of millions. Traffic reports can be based not on helicopters and road sensors, but on the density, speed, and direction of the phones (and people) stuck in the traffic jams.

Tool for development: Your phone may be more than just a convenience, it may be your livelihood. Already, this is true for people in many parts of the world: in southern India, fishermen use text messaging to find the best markets for their daily catch, in South Africa, sugar farmers can receive text messages advising them on how much to irrigate their crops, and throughout sub-Saharan Africa entrepreneurs with mobile phones become phone operators, bringing communications to their villages. These innovations will only increase in the future, as mobile phones become the linchpin for greater economic development.

The future-proof device: Your phone will open up, as the Internet already has, so it will be easy for developers to create or improve applications and content. The ones that you care about get automatically installed on your phone. Let's say you have a piece of software on your phone to improve power management (and therefore battery life). Let's say a developer makes an improvement to the software. The update gets automatically installed on your phone, without you lifting a finger. Your phone actually gets better over time.

Now, if we can just train it to do your laundry ...